Thanks to the Byrd machine of a generation or two ago, Virginia has an election every year...and this year's has been particularly bruising and nasty.  Maybe it is because so many races are local ones.  Or that some of the candidates have ratcheted the rhetoric to nastier levels of discourse.  Whatever the reason, many candidates never did discuss their positions on current issues or their solutions.  Instead, they looked for "gotcha" moments from their opponents past.

While I lean Democratic, I have been known to vote Republican on occasion.  However, ever since George Allen ran for Governor over a decade ago, the Virginia GOP has chosen candidates who love to use wedge issues to win votes.  And when they have the chance to govern, they either put the state in serious debt (such as Gilmore's idiotic "car tax" or they come up with convoluted plans to solve serious long term problems (such as using the criminal justice system to raise enough sustaining revenue to meet transportation needs).

So here are my predictions for local races putting my Democratic bias aside:

House District 50:  Miller vs Rishell.  One would have thought that with an incumbent who had been in office for just a year that repeat Democratic challenger Jeanette Rishell would have made more solid hits on Delegate Jackson Miller's record.  Unfortunately, little of substance got talked about during the debates between these two, and gaffes by Rishell, a progressive leaning candidates, allowed Miller to slip by virtually unscathed.  Her mailings (which by the way I never received even though I was an early and frequent contributor to her campaign), talked about some bogus charges that Miller voted himself a pay raise while in the General Assembly.  That, in turn, allowed Miller to check the voting records and trumpet her failure not to vote in several recent elections (not even by absentee ballot).  She certainly put together a well organized campaign and caused Manasass Republicans to spend money that, in the past, they did not have to.  While I predict she will not win, she has restored the two party system to a city that has lacked any loyal opposition for two decades. 

Prediction:  Miller over Rishell.

House District 13:  Marshal vs Roemmelt.  Another repeat of candidates.  Challenger Bruce Roemmelt got off to a slow start in this campaign, but utilizing his rolodex, he raised some money.  More importantly, he sent some damaging mailers out about how Marshall sells his support for votes in the General Assembly and how he wants even married couples not to have access to birth control.  Had he started earlier with this kind of campaign, he would have greater inroads in the district given the influx of new voters who were not around 2 years ago and would be impressionable to change.  I predict Marshall wins but he will still not be embraced by his fellow Republicans.  P.S.  I believe Roemmelt would be an excellent candidate for the State Senate in 4 years when Colgan does not run.  He has the temperament, the campaign organizational skills and the right stuff to be a superb state senator.

Prediction:  Marshall over Roemmelt.

Senate District 39.  Colgan vs Fitzsimmons.  It is a case of the long years of service of a conservative Democrat running against a closet gay Republican.  Many observers outside the district say that Fitzsimmons made serious inroads by using the immigration wedge issue to hammer Colgan.  However, so many Republicans, led by former Republican Delegate Harry Parrish's wife and son, will cross over and pull the Democratic lever leading other likeminded Republican to re-elect a Democrat.  Hopefully, this will bury this Republican idiot who needs leave Larry Craig behind and come out of the closet.

Prediction:  Colgan over Fitzsimmons.

Manasass Clerk of the Court:  In this three way race, you have actually have someone who has experience as a Clerk along with a legal background.  Attorney Bill Ryland has both.  His challengers, a Republican who has been a supervisor and delegate and has all the charm of a bitch in heat and an independent, who has been chairman of the school board, who has little gravitas let alone smarts to do this job.  I predict Ryland in a walk.

Prediction:  Ryland over the women challengers.

Virginia Republicans have finally been caught ala "the Emperor has no clothes." and will lose their majority in the State Senate.  And the result, including a Democratic Governor and one Democratic US Senator, puts the Republicans back in their minority status state wide.  Oh, they will still be able to stamp their tiny feet and be obstructionists, as they are already, but, at least, their influence will be greatly reduced. 

While I can not vote in Prince William County, I do predict that Board Chairman Corey Stewart will lose.  His "johnny one note" tune of division will be rejected and Democrat Sharon Pandak will win.  Unfortunately, Stewart's compatriot in bigotry, John Stirrup, will get re-elected which will make Pandak's job tough, but she will have a mandate for change that should put marginalize him for awhile.  Of course, she and others on the board will have to still produce when it comes to overcrowding and zoning problems, but, hopefully, her methods will not be so draconian.

Finally, I predict that this whole illegal immigration debate has awakened a sleeping giant.   In Manassas, almost 50% of the students are non-white yet there is only one black on the Board and no Hispanics.  This will change as this ethnic group starts to organize and vote and run candidates, not only for the School Board, but for City Council.  It will be interesting to see which political party is looking ahead and working on recruiting Hispanics as supporters.  Will Democrats seize the moment and start addressing that group's issues?  Or will Republicans use religious connections to make inroads?   Stay tuned for some interesting times.

Prediction:  One Hispanic on Manassas School Board in 2010; One Hispanic Manassas City Council in 2011.